The USD steadies, oil prices rebound, equity markets are mixed, and US yields rise amid ongoing tensions between the US and Iran. The U.S. dollar holds steady in early trading, supported by higher Treasury yields, renewed U.S.-Iran uncertainty and concerns that firmer energy prices could keep inflation elevated. This week's focus remains firmly on the U.S. labour market, beginning with today's JOLTS job openings report and culminating in Friday's closely watched nonfarm payrolls release. Global equity markets are mixed as investors balance another strong round of corporate earnings against ongoing concerns over technology valuations and geopolitical risks. U.S. futures are modestly higher, European equities are near record highs, and attention today turns to earnings from SpaceX and AMD for further insight into AI-driven growth. Elsewhere, oil prices rebound on renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace efforts, while gold firms on safe-haven demand. Bitcoin eases as investors take profits following recent gains and rotate back into equities. In focus today: Markets will be watching Canada's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, along with the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report, Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders, with the releases expected to provide fresh direction for currency markets.
News Headlines. US states accuse Trump administration of 'sham' tariff probe. Italy and Germany's censure of Spain's migration amnesty is 'hypocritical'. Trump claims Iran talks under way despite denial from Tehran. Bessent's yen intervention signals new era of US 'currency activism'. Ukraninian drones hit Wildberries warehouse in overnight strikes. Spotify forecasts weak profit as users growth slows in North America and Europe.
In currency markets. Against the USD, the Japanese yen remains well supported after last week's coordinated intervention by Japan and the United States, with former Bank of Japan official Atsushi Takeuchi saying both countries would likely intervene again if the yen resumes its decline. The joint action is viewed as having significantly reduced the risk of another sharp depreciation, with markets now expecting authorities to defend the currency if USD/JPY moves back toward recent highs. SpaceXs's first earnings offer chance to reverse stocks plunge. Merck hikes revenue outlook as new drug sales grow, but cuts profit guidance due to deal charges.
In commodity markets. WTI +1.74% | Nat Gas -1.58% | Gold +0.40% | Silver +1.76% | Copper +1.31% | Palladium +2.66% | Coffee +1.56% | Cocoa -0.91% | Soybeans -0.46% | Wheat +0.08%
CAD holds steady in early trading, supported by rebounding oil prices as markets await today's Canadian Manufacturing PMI and Friday's Canadian employment report for fresh direction. While renewed Middle East uncertainty continues to underpin crude prices, attention will also be on today's US JOLTS Job Openings data, with stronger labour market signals likely to reinforce US dollar strength and keep loonie trading above 1.40.
EURCAD holds steady in early trading near five-month highs, with stronger Eurozone growth and persistent ECB tightening expectations continuing to support the euro despite firmer oil prices underpinning the Canadian dollar. The near-term bias remains for further EUR/CAD strength, although today's Canadian Manufacturing PMI and Friday's employment report could provide the loonie with fresh direction if domestic data surprises to the upside.
EUR holds steady above 1.1500 in early trading, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation that has reinforced expectations for further ECB rate hikes. Attention now turns to today's US JOLTS Job Openings data and Friday's US employment report, with stronger labour market data likely to revive US dollar strength and determine whether EUR/USD can extend gains or retreat back below 1.1500.
GBPEUR holds steady in early trading as the euro struggles to build on recent gains despite stronger Eurozone economic data. Near-term direction will be driven by incoming UK and Eurozone data, although expectations for a more cautious Bank of England later this year could limit further upside for the cross.
GBP/USD edges higher in early trading, with sterling finding modest support after last week's Bank of England meeting despite Governor Bailey's insistence that policymakers are not moving towards further rate hikes. With no major UK economic releases scheduled this week, attention will shift to today's US JOLTS Job Openings report and Friday's US employment data, which are likely to be the key drivers of pound's direction.
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