The USD advances, oil prices steady, equity markets are mixed, and US yields rise as tech optimism wanes ahead of he Fed's rate decision. The U.S. dollar firms modestly as traders trim short positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, with the central bank widely expected to leave rates unchanged but keep the door open to a December hike. Persistent inflation risks, still-elevated energy prices and caution ahead of Thursday’s U.S. GDP and PCE data are also lending support to the greenback. Global equity markets are mixed, with U.S. futures largely flat, European shares lower and Asian markets showing a more varied tone as enthusiasm around the AI trade cools. Investors are turning their attention to this week’s major technology earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, alongside Wednesday’s Fed decision, while renewed Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices continue to temper risk appetite. Elsewhere, oil prices are broadly steady as markets balance tentative Middle East diplomatic efforts against lingering supply risks, while gold eases after Monday’s rebound and Bitcoin slips modestly as investors remain cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Today’s economic calendar includes the ECB Bank Lending Survey, U.S. ADP Employment Change, Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, alongside a speech from ECB President Lagarde and, later in the evening, RBA Governor Bullock.
News Headlines. UPS beats quarterly expectations and raises full-year guidance again. Nvidia to invest $ billion in Meta as tech giants deepen AI partnership. Oil prices seesaw amid renewed diplomatic efforts to end Mideast conflict. China industrial profits posts stronger gain as tech boom widens economic divide. Israelis go to the polls in historic election. France must 'cure ourselves' without more spending, says finance minister. The US and Canada working on deal to ease steel and auto tariffs. Carney says the Indian Act could be reformed or abolished. GM will switch to NASDAQ from the NYSE on Nov 17th.
In currency markets. Against the USD, MXN and ZAR weaken as firmer dollar demand and cautious risk sentiment weigh on higher-beta emerging-market currencies, with MXN also facing a less supportive carry backdrop and ZAR vulnerable to softer commodity sentiment. AUD and NZD firm modestly as markets position for Wednesday’s Australian CPI and RBNZ decision, with expectations for further tightening from both central banks providing relative support.
In commodity markets. WTI +0.66% | Nat Gas -1.08% | Gold -0.77% | Silver -2.08% | Copper +0.83% | Palladium -3.29% | Coffee -1.06% | Cocoa +0.38% | Soybeans +0.42% | Wheat Flat
CAD steadies after its longest daily winning streak since 2022, with markets cautious ahead of Wednesday’s BoC and Fed decisions. The BoC is widely expected to raise rates by 25bp to 2.50%, while the Fed is expected to hold but keep December tightening in play, leaving relative policy guidance as the key near-term driver. Softer oil prices and a firmer USD are limiting further CAD gains, although reduced speculative short positioning suggests underlying sentiment toward the loonie has improved.
EURCAD retreats as expectations for a 25bp BoC hike on Wednesday support CAD, while softer oil limits the move. The euro remains capped by French fiscal concerns, with focus now on Lagarde’s comments and Thursday’s ECB decision for guidance on further tightening.
EUR eases in early trading as renewed caution around France’s fiscal outlook and softer euro-area growth momentum continue to weigh on the single currency. Moody’s decision to leave France’s rating unchanged has provided some stability, but French debt concerns and elevated energy costs remain key headwinds. Attention today turns to ECB President Lagarde’s remarks, before the Fed decision on Wednesday and ECB meeting on Thursday, with both central banks expected to hold rates and markets focused on guidance for possible December tightening.
GBPEUR holds broadly steady near 17-month highs as expectations for a November BoE hike continue to support GBP, while relatively stable UK fiscal conditions limit downside. The euro remains constrained by elevated energy prices, softer regional growth and lingering French fiscal concerns, leaving the cross largely range-bound ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision.
GBP slips modestly against the USD as traders trim positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision, with the greenback holding a firmer tone. Expectations for a November BoE hike continue to limit GBP downside after recent stronger inflation and wage data, while investors are also watching the UK fiscal outlook ahead of next week’s budget.
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